Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Mandatory Rotation of The Auditing Firm - Healthy Competition or Collective Incompetence

The two most important regulators of the word, namely, the European Commission (E.C.) in Europe and the PCAOB in the U.S. have taken very different routes to enhance the audit quality of the firms. In April 2014, EU amended the Statutory Audit Directive of 2006 to introduce provisions relating to the Mandatory Firm Rotation (MFR) to extend periodical changes to audit firms as well. However, the US decided to stick to its rule of only Mandatory Audit Partner Rotation. Three years later, in April 2017, India, through Companies Act, 2013 mandated Audit Rotation in India too.

Mandatory Audit Rotation imposes periodic breaks to audit engagements and is intended to avoid excessively long relationship between the auditor and the client. This means that listed and other public interest entities will have to bid goodbye to their long-standing auditors, put out their audit tender periodically and completely change the auditor after the prescribed period by the regulator. For audit companies, this means that they will have to chase many more new clients than they normally do and re-work on permissible activities that they can provide to their audit clients to avoid a conflict-of-interest between their other services, like consulting, and auditing.

This increased tendering environment has put a limelight on data and analytics. Statutory audit is a homogenous service defined strictly by a few hundred pages of legislation leaving very little room for differentiation. Firms are offering innovative solutions, not only as a differentiator of services being offered, but to address key business risks and inadvertently improving audit quality. The Flip side to this is that the big four, with their deep pockets, are developing new technologies at a considerable cost, effectively creating a barrier to entry for the smaller firms. It’ll be a while until the cost stabilize through innovation seep down. We can safely assume that the big four will continue their dominance, well into the new contract cycle in the coming decade.

The bottom line lies in the audit quality. Auditing quality is widely discussed and debated topic across the globe. It can be defined as the probability that an auditor will both discover and report a breach in the client's accounting system. It can potentially bring out the scam in public domain or sustain it for many years. The probability of finding fault in accounting depends on the auditor’s intellectual competence while that of reporting, depends on auditor’s independence. Audit quality being very subjective topic, can neither be quantified nor be accurately measured, but only proxies are used for its assessment.

Many countries have undergone massive transformations in its auditing practices laws. New Zealand, after Initially refraining from making reforms to its auditing profession, eventually felt threatened that the country might be excluded from international recognition of its auditors and found it necessary to impose reforms.


Key Findings after Partner Rotation in US

There are some interesting results observed when the change in audit partner takes place. For larger firms, we see a positive psychological change in perception. By analyzing the Earnings Response Coefficient, we can conclude that investors perceive the rotation of lead audit partner as enhancing audit quality. While On the other hand, for smaller firms, it is observed that their predictive value of earning for future cash flows improved to as much as 85% during the post-rotation period.

Mandatory Audit Firm Rotation- A Silver Bullet?

MAR is not a new phenomenon. It has found acceptance in other countries such as Italy (auditor term limit of 9 years), Brazil (5 years), South Korea (6 years), and India (4 years for banks, insurance companies, and public sector companies).
External or statutory audit firms keep reiterating that their business is not investigation but assessing fraud in financial statements. However, two of the biggest frauds committed in Parmalat, Italy and PNB, India show that auditor could have detected malpractices with just some due diligence in their regular work. These frauds were at similar scale of Enron and often dubbed as ‘Italy’s Enron’ and ‘India’s Enron’ respectively. In fact, the Parmalat fraud took place after the implementation of mandatory firm rotation.
Implementation of MAR or MPR is yet to have its desired effect on fraud detection. However, the question is, will MAR lead us to a serious problem that is beyond our imagination today?

Additional Concerns

  • Quality of CPAs (Certified Public Accountant Firm)
Major CPA (equivalent to CAs of India) firms usually hire bright minds from reputed B Schools. Over time, accounting as a career has started to lose its charm due to work pressure. Major CPAs are abandoning professionalism to pursue consulting profits. This implies neither proper compensation nor hope for advancement in the minds of aspiring students.  As a result, the quality of graduates joining the firms may be questionable.
  • Protecting each other’s interest
When auditing firms closely compete for the same limited pool of profitable clients, it is in their interest to protect the industry from probable disruption. This behavior has a potential to lead us towards another major financial crisis.
  • Consolidation
If major players start to consolidate to effectively level the competition, then how much consolidation can be beneficial to the market or in the interest of public? Their unquestionable dominance may make it difficult to question their remarks.

Below graph plots ordinary least squares (OLS) coefficient estimates (together with 95 percent confidence intervals) from regressions of Audit Fees and audit effort (measured as Audit Hours, Total Partner Hours, or Engagement Partner Hours) for client i in year t on five separate indicators marking the years 1 to 5 of the tenure cycle of the engagement partner. Year 3 serves as base period and lacks a coefficient estimate. The models include various audit and client-specific control variables plus fixed effects (see notes to Tables 4 and 5 for details). The sample comprises up to 17,903 client-year observations over the 2008-2014 period with PCAOB and control variable data.



-  Sagar Gogate
   Ankit Sharma
   SDA Bocconi Asia Center

Friday, February 9, 2018

Arbitrage Opportunities with Bitcoin

Forget gambling in Bitcoins. But, they can give you the best arbitrage opportunities!

Many of my colleagues ask me, “When are you investing in Bitcoins?” I always reply, “Neither me, nor you, nor anybody else can ever invest in Bitcoins. You can only gamble with them!” That’s how I exactly define the difference between investing and gambling. I recall an interview of Jack Ma – Founder & Executive Chairman, Alibaba Group, who admitted openly that he doesn’t understand the price changes of Bitcoins and hence stays away from putting his money into the cryptocurrency. Indian ace investor – Rakesh Jhunjhunwala admitted publicly that he doesn’t understand the business model of many of the businesses present in the e-commerce space; he stays away from investing in businesses that he doesn’t understand, as it would be gambling in that business.

When you don’t understand something, stay away from putting your hard-earned money in it. 

Fair enough!

That’s the only reason I stay away from investing in Bitcoins. I understand them being a vehicle for transaction, but I am never sure how their price may move the next minute. This goes in similar lines when Bitcoin recently lost 20% of its all-time high value in just 1 hour, and is now trading at below USD 8,000 just a few weeks from its all-time high of USD 19,343.

Confused, I went through a few videos on what determines Bitcoin prices as I believe that when people are ready to put in so huge amount from their hard-earned money in such a volatile instrument, there should be some underlying valuation technique. I came across an interesting video by Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, who explained valuation of Bitcoin using Metcalfe’s Law which states,

“The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system.”

So, the cryptocurrency can be valued as the square function of the number of users times the average transaction value. This is what can be said to be the Network Effect. When I went through the bitcoin price as compared to the valuation technique proposed by Tom Lee, I came across the following graph,



That was pretty close!

All these in place and given the valuation technique, I was still reluctant to trade Bitcoins given its volatility and no asset backing. I invest in equities, but all of them have an asset backing. Being a participant in financial markets, I have learnt one thing that you need to follow a discipline while investing; you need to keep greed aside. Follow fundamentals and take cue from technicals and market psychology while making an investment decision.

While I strongly believe that when investing, your instrument need to be asset-backed or be a representative of an asset, the second thoughts were – Am I missing on technological advancement? Am I being an orthodox investor who doesn’t want to evolve? Has the definition of investing changed in this exponentially evolving technological world? But then I heard Jamie Dimon – CEO, JPMorgan literally boycotting Bitcoins and strongly discouraging any of the company’s employees from trading in the cryptocurrency. I was relieved that I wasn’t the only one thinking so. But then I thought of the second-order implication: Will JPMorgan be the next Nokia or Kodak with this thinking?

We are in a financial world, where participants break or make overnight. Who imagined Lehman Brothers would go bankrupt with just flick of fingers? And Bear Stearns? Participants in financial markets need to keep updated and use the advancement in technology for added benefits while keeping aside emotions or greed while taking a position in the market.

While I am still juggling and have not been able to convince myself to ‘invest’ in the volatile Bitcoins, I have found another strategy to use the cryptocurrency to make money. I am hitting upon something that uses the present currency market and Bitcoin market to take an advantage of Arbitrage opportunity that a mixed strategy can give, making use of both the markets.
Let’s take a simple case of that I came across today,

Date: February 09, 2018
Time: 03.01 am


Source: Marketwatch

Bitcoin was trading @USD 8005.97 at 03.01 am and @EUR 6527.29 at the same time.

At 03.01 am, the currency market was showing the following quotation,


Source: Reuters.in
Note: USD/EUR rate (read as 1 USD = xy.abcd EUR)

At this quotation,

For converting USD to EUR,

Bid Price = 0.8155
Ask Price = 0.8157

At the same time, while converting EUR to USD, the bid and ask price interchange i.e.,

Bid Price = 1/0.8157 = 1.2259
Ask Price = 1/0.8155 = 1.2262

At this quotation for Bitcoins and exchange rates as of 03.01 am, one can take the following strategy to take an advantage of an arbitrage opportunity with Bitcoins,
  1.       Convert USD 8004.0343 to EUR 6527.29 @0.8155 bid rate
  2.       Buy 1 Bitcoin @EUR 6527.29
  3.       Sell 1 Bitcoin @8005.97
The total money made in this transaction is 8005.97-8004.0343 = USD 1.9357

In this whole transaction, the trader doesn’t risk the implications of wild volatility in prices that trading in Bitcoin would result in, at the same time making money from arbitrage!   

I believe that arbitrage is a far better strategy while trading with Bitcoins, rather than going long on this extremely volatile vehicle. I am personally a risk-averse investor and would stay away from such a risky trade. For investors and traders having a huge risk appetite can definitely consider this opportunity!

- Harsh Pathak
President - Finance Club, MISB Bocconi
Contact: +91 98209 76480
Email: harsh.pathak@misbbocconi.com; harsh.pathak0509@gmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/harsh-pathak-2a960559/